2025 Kentucky Derby predictions, odds, horses, post positions, date: Surprising picks by horse racing expert

The first leg of this year’s horse racing Triple Crown will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs with the running of the 2025 Kentucky Derby. The top betting favorites in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field include Journalism (3-1), Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1). Journalism enters the Kentucky Derby 2025 on fire, having won four straight races, including the Santa Anita Derby his last time out. Will this be the year the favorite among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses wins at Churchill Downs since Justify in 2018 or will a longshot stun the horse racing world? Where should Journalism be when evaluating your 2025 Kentucky Derby betting guide and PPs? With the Kentucky Derby annually featuring the largest field in North American racing, you’ll want to see what Santa Anita-based racing reporter and analyst Michelle Yu has to say before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, considering the success she’s had handicapping this race.

In a wide-open Kentucky Derby in 2021, she gave out Medina Spirit, who crossed the finish line first, as the winner at 12-1. In Pool 5 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager three years ago, she suggested a play on All Other 3-Year-Olds, which cashed at a whopping 18-1 when Rich Strike won.

She started off 2025 by correctly going all-in on Citizen Bull to win the Robert B. Lewis Stakes, and she also predicted Forever Young’s win in the $20 million Saudi Cup, Journalism’s win in the San Felipe Stakes and Sandman’s win in the Arkansas Derby this year. Anyone who has followed her on those picks on betting sites like FanDuel Racing, TwinSpires and 1/ST BET is up huge.

Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Yu is sharing her 2025 Kentucky Derby betting picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. You can head to SportsLine now to see them.

Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions

One surprise: Yu is completely fading Sandman, even though he won the Arkansas Derby and is one of the top favorites. Tapit’s bloodline is well-established enough at this point that you can virtually guarantee that his progeny will take significant action in a big race. However, Sandman’s performances have been incredibly uneven, as he’s managed only one stakes win in five appearances and needed a blistering early pace to set him up to take advantage of the closing speed that has become a calling card of Tapit’s sons.

“He will need help up front again and will need to find a trip in the 20-horse field, but he delivers a steady run once produced. Being outside isn’t ideal, but since he just drops to the back of the pack, this draw might keep him in the clear. Lots of haters dislike his prep saying that his final quarter in the Arkansas Derby was pedestrian,” Yu told SportsLine. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.

Another curveball: Yu is high on Luxor Cade , even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Derma Sotogake and Forever Young have helped change the perspective on Japanese horses at Churchill Downs over the past two years. Derma Sotogake closed at 8-1 in 2023 before a bad break out of the gate doomed him, while Forever Young finished a nose behind Mystik Dan last year.

Luxor Cafe takes the baton this year after clinching his spot via the Japan Road to the Kentucky Derby with a five-length victory in the Fukuryu Stakes at the end of March. He also won the Hyacinth Stakes in February, and he is on a four-race winning streak. Yu knows that Luxor Cafe will probably end up farther back earlier than he is used to, but she doesn’t think that will be a major issue. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.

How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks

Moreover, Yu is high on a double-digit longshot who has been getting over the Churchill Downs surface “perfectly” this week. She is including this horse in her 2025 Kentucky Derby bets, and so should you. She’s sharing which 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to back at SportsLine.

So who wins the 2025 Kentucky Derby? What double-digit longshot is a must-back, and how has Yu constructed her wagers? Visit SportsLine to see Yu’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the Santa Anita-based racing insider who has a long history of success in the Kentucky Derby, and find out.