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There is a lot of uncertainty in polling. Despite the individual polls results, Labor has yet to show a clear lead in Guardian Australia’s modelling. The model averages the polls over the time they are in the field and factors in sample sizes, previous results and the “house effects” (bias towards a party) of each pollster.

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Good morning and welcome to our live news blog. I’m Martin Farrer with the best overnight stories and then Krishani Dhanji will be your guide.

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Stock markets in Europe and the US have seen heavy losses after yesterday’s announcement by Donald Trump of tariffs on US trading partners. Anthony Albanese’s government is still considering its response but has unveiled $1bn in loans to help Australian exporters after the tariff hit. We have more coming up.

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The US president’s economic warfare has made him politically toxic with Australian voters. Although the situation is fraught with difficulties for Albanese – will it crash our economy? – there could be political benefits because Peter Dutton has in the past tried to align himself with Trumpist themes such as being “strong” on defence and immigration. Our political writers have their analysis, and in the blog in a minute we’ll look at a new poll showing that Dutton is losing popularity with voters.

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Key events

What we learned today, Friday 4 April

Emily Wind

Well, this has been an absolutely massive week – and we’re only on day eight of the election campaign. Here are all the main takeaways from what went down today:

  • Anthony Albanese wrapped up the first week of election campaigning with a stop in his home city of Sydney.

  • He spoke at a Daily Telegraph-hosted event in western Sydney, committing to extend the $20,000 instant asset write-off for small businesses and tradies for another year.

  • Peter Dutton, also in western Sydney, made a $231m roads funding announcement at the same event.

  • The opposition leader’s popularity with voters has plummeted, according to the latest YouGov poll, with his approval rating at its lowest since taking on the Coalition’s top job. Albanese solidified his lead as preferred PM, leading 45% to 38%.

  • Dutton denied reports his relationship with the mining magnate Gina Rinehart is cooling, saying WA mining makes an “enormous contribution” to Australia.

  • The trade minister, Don Farrell, said the government would use critical minerals as a negotiating tactic with the US over tariffs.

  • ANZ joined the other three major banks in predicting an interest rate cut in May.

  • Voting trends among gen Zers in the western world point to young men favouring more rightwing parties while young women are leaning more to the left.

  • The climate change and energy minister, Chris Bowen, and the shadow minister, Ted O’Brien, are scheduled to debate each other next Thursday.

  • The former One Nation leader Mark Latham’s homophobic tweet about political rival Alex Greenwich could cost more than triple after he was ordered to pay the independent Sydney MP’s legal costs.

  • The former Liberal MP Petro Georgiou has died at the age of 77.

Enjoy your weekend, and take care.

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